🔗 Share this article Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader. A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”