🔗 Share this article

During a lavish speakeasy-style gathering hosted at Raffles establishment in central London recently, the great and the good from the remaining ranks of the Conservative party marked the Spectator’s parliamentarian of the year awards.

With the magazine’s editorial line continuing to backing the Tories, despite the party confront severe challenges from Reform UK, observers expected that much of the gossip at the champagne-fuelled event was about whether Kemi Badenoch’s job was at risk.

Leadership Rivalries Surface at Awards

James Cleverly, who unsuccessfully ran, made pointed remarks during his speech at the naked ambition of his shadow cabinet colleague, Robert Jenrick – considered the main challenger.

“Do I seek her position? Am I going to stick the knife between her shoulder blades to take over? Certainly not,” the experienced politician informed the amused crowd while commencing the awards ceremony.

Jenrick, who came second, has recently shifted alarmingly to the right to take on Nigel Farage, responded with humor. His own manoeuvres have been anything but subtle.

Countdown to Challenge Starts

Months ago, one of the Tory leader’s disgruntled backbenchers set up a countdown clock on social media of the days left until Conservative rules allow leadership bids. That period concludes this weekend.

At that point, opponents within the party will be able to submit letters a leadership election. The rules changed last year raising the required support, now demanding thirty percent of the party’s 119 MPs must endorse, previously just fifteen percent, creating a higher bar for potential challengers.

Potential Contenders and Support

Is it feasible for opponents – Jenrick foremost among them – secure support from colleagues required to start the process? Party sources reference the numbers who nominated him during the last race: 28 in the first round. “That forms the baseline,” according to insiders.

Many exist of Conservative legislators ready to express dissatisfaction with the leader: her approach, her political judgment, her ability to cut through. However, generally, they are hesitant regarding repeating a leadership overthrow at this time.

Breathing Space and Poll Concerns

Some Conservative MPs further think the leader's conference address during the fall gathering, announcing a policy to remove property tax for main residences, has bought her temporary relief.

“We might not be happy with Kemi’s leadership but we’ll be very careful about getting rid of her. The public already think we fight like rats in a sack. We don’t need to give them further confirmation,” an anonymous legislator stated.

This doesn't mean planning has ceased. “The leader has until spring. Upcoming council polls could be disastrous for the party. Nobody is going to want to take over before that and bear responsibility. However, post-elections, we will need somebody capable of guiding in a new direction,” a frontbench source commented.

Polling Data and Public Opinion

The polls already suggest the leader has gained minimal ground among voters in the past twelve months and that she has fallen in terms of her personal ratings. With a negative score, her standing is lower than Jenrick (-16) and Mel Stride (-21), according to Ipsos Mori.

Data from YouGov further reveals that the leader has persuaded only 12% of Britons she is ready for higher office. The outlook improves among Conservative voters, over half stating she has done a good job as party leader, with fewer than a third saying she should not lead the party into the next general election.

Upcoming Scenarios and Internal Dynamics

But while Tory supporters are ambivalent, a general agreement exists within parliamentary ranks that Badenoch will not be the one to lead the party into the next election.

The main division is whether it would better to replace her in May and have a chance at stopping the rival party's advance – or leave it until closer the election date if Reform falters, and public receptiveness improves to listen to the Tories again.

It is no secret that the challenger believes he is the right candidate. But his allies say he won't act immediately, and agrees with those who thinks they should wait until spring.

Alternative Candidates and Strategies

Some speculate that the party’s potential saviour may end up being somebody with a lower profile (one junior minister is sometimes suggested) or among newer MPs without strong associations to previous governments.

Cleverly, who came third, is also cited as a potentially unifying figure, remaining reserved. Supporters indicate he sees no better option but to carry on with Badenoch, as anybody taking over now would inherit an even more difficult situation.

However, if a contest were to be triggered, there would undoubtedly be those encourage his candidacy, and he may be persuadable another attempt. A small group moderate legislators are already preparing opposition efforts to prevent Jenrick from being crowned from winning.

Conservative Shift and Political Calculations

An influential insider warned how momentum favors right-wingers within and beyond the Conservative party, mentioning names like several prominent MPs. “It is a chance for James as he has the stature and the relationship with members, and some want to stop Robert completely.”

“Quite a lot of minds are on the need for a pact with the rival party eventually. During the votes on assisted suicide and decriminalising abortion there was a lot of calls for expulsion who voted for those out the party’ while Reform privately is ‘you’ve got some Lib Dems sympathizers must go. That tips things in Robert’s favour a bit.”

Yet another source noted: “The outcome remains a foregone conclusion. We could have a strong competition between Jenrick and another – Cleverly, Stride. The idea that the rightwing candidate consistently secure membership support is not necessarily the case.”